When national dietary guidelines are updated, they not only influence national health priorities but can also redirect capital towards product innovation, marketing strategies and supply chain investment.
The United States is one of several nations to have published updated dietary guidelines earlier this year, emphasising the importance of eating more protein, providing a timely opportunity to explore the benefits of protein diversification for diets and portfolios.
Food retailers, manufacturers and protein producers that align early with evolving dietary guidelines can capture reputational and competitive benefits; while those that do not risk regulatory friction, declining sales or sudden shifts in consumer behaviour.
Furthermore, for investors, dietary guidelines can provide a clear signal of who is likely to thrive or lag in an increasingly nutrition-conscious market.
Dietary guidelines: Business risk or competitive opportunity?
National dietary guidelines are used globally to inform national food policies, ensuring that nutrition programs are aligned with the latest scientific evidence on health impacts. These often inform standards for school meals, nutritional educational materials, food assistance programs, public health campaigns and food procurement.
Such guidelines can present significant opportunities for food retailers and manufacturers that closely align with their recommendations, positively influencing brand image and competitiveness.
For example, Tesco uses the UK government's nutrient profile model, which is informed by the country's dietary guidelines, to define its healthy products. In 2021, Tesco set a target to increase the proportion of healthy product sales to 65% in the UK and the Republic of Ireland (ROI) by December 2025 and to 53% in Central Europe (CE) by December 2027.
As of May 2025, Tesco’s healthy product sales accounted for 64% of total sales in the UK and ROI and 51% in CE. These sales were driven by initiatives to improve the signposting of healthy products and ensuring price parity between healthy and standard versions of products.
In addition to providing opportunities for voluntary action by early adopters, policymakers can take legislative action to convert dietary guidelines into marketing regulations and ingredient taxation policies, leading to increased production and operational cost impacts for companies.
The UK’s 2018 Soft Drinks Industry Levy, strongly influenced by its national dietary guidelines, forced several companies to change their product strategies and resulted in a large market shift in the energy drinks sector. Lucozade Energy, which reformulated its standard recipe to reduce sugar and avoid the levy, saw annual sales drop to £273.6m (US$376.1m) – representing an 18.6% decrease.
An increased focus on protein diversification
On 7 January 2026, the US updated its Dietary Guidelines for Americans for 2025-2030. While much has changed since the country first published its original guidance in 1894, the emphasis on promoting the health and well-being of the US population remains.
Among other things, the guidelines promote the consumption of whole grains, fruits, and vegetables, as well as healthy fats, while also recommending limits on sugars and refined carbohydrates.
This iteration of the guidelines also places more emphasis on proteins, recommending people consume 1.2g - 1.6g of protein per kilogram of body weight per day. Peer-reviewed studies, including those conducted by the World Health Organization, suggest a daily recommendation of 0.80g - 0.83g per kilogram of body weight.
Although the guidelines do not outline the proportion of plant- and animal-based proteins that should be eaten, consuming a diverse range of protein sources, particularly those from plants, can provide additional consumer health benefits. Moreover, these proteins can play a role in building company supply chain resilience and have potential as a lever of food system transformation, as FAIRR has highlighted extensively.
Plant proteins: Resilient, nutritious, and cost-effective
US Department of Agriculture dietary survey data from 2023 shows that, on average, Americans already eat enough protein – around 1.4g/kg of body weight per day. Roughly two-thirds of this intake comes from animal-derived products, of which 99% are estimated to come from livestock that is farmed industrially.
Industrial animal agriculture relies on complex supply chains that are highly exposed to disruption arising from climate change, antimicrobial resistance, labour and a host of other sustainability issues that can translate into financially material operational, legal and reputational risks.
For instance, already facing tight margins, livestock farmers are being pushed out of business, which impacts supplies.1 The record-highs of US beef prices, or the egg shortages and steep price increases caused by bird flu, serve as recent examples.
Tight cattle supplies and soaring costs have forced US beef processors to increase their prices and cut operations, while also sourcing more beef from abroad – US imports increased by 17% in 2025 compared to 2024. These decisions have not been able to stem losses, however, with Tyson expected to lose US$250 million - US$500 million in operating income this year.
In contrast, whole plant-based proteins move through shorter supply chains with fewer steps, where financial losses or shocks can occur. The inputs, equipment and time required to grow soy and process it into tofu, for example, are minimal compared with what is needed to produce a beef steak.
Moreover, plant-based whole foods can provide protein to consumers at a significantly lower cost than animal sources. For example, at low-cost US retailer Walmart, half a cup of dry lentils delivers 20g of protein for US$0.35, whereas obtaining the same protein amount from ground beef, pork, or chicken costs approximately US$1.80, US$1.00 and US$0.70, respectively.
US school nutrition departments, operating with a US$4.60 per-meal budget, seeking to increase protein intake and limit highly processed or sugary foods, may turn to affordable plant-based protein sources such as beans, peas, lentils, legumes, nuts, seeds, and soy alternatives. The same is likely true of hospitals, prisons, and other large-scale food procurement departments, as well as price-conscious consumers.
Food retailers and manufacturers that diversify their protein portfolios will be well-positioned to cater to this demand, while also mitigating supply chain volatility and financial impacts that industrial animal protein production is exposed to.
Finally, just like a well-diversified investment portfolio, diets achieve the greatest nutritional returns when they include a variety of foods, including diverse sources of protein, and these returns also impact companies financially.
The new EAT Lancet report has found that eating a diet rich in plant proteins could prevent 15 million premature deaths per year, mitigating the significant costs these deaths can have on the economy, which some companies are already experiencing. For example, a study conducted by the Journal of Nutrition & Diabetes found that in 2023, the cost of obesity-associated absenteeism was US$1,755 per person per year for employers in the US.
Protein diversification: Positioning for resilience and growth
As dietary guidelines evolve, they continue to shape public health priorities. Beyond that, they can significantly impact the cost structures, product portfolios and resilience strategies of protein producers, food retailers and manufacturers.
The renewed emphasis on protein in the US guidelines and the mounting risks companies face from industrial animal agriculture underscore the growing need for diversified, reliable protein sources. Plant-based proteins offer a clear solution, providing cost, supply chain stability and consumer demand advantages.
Protein diversification will be essential for companies and investors seeking long-term value in an increasingly fragile food system that seeks to balance costs and nutrition. Keeping a careful eye on global dietary guidelines will provide key insights into policy trends that can potentially drive market impact.
References
[1] Between 2017 and 2022, the US Census of Agriculture showed a clear overall decline in livestock farming, with most livestock and poultry categories – especially beef, hogs, and dairy – experiencing significant reductions in inventory and sales. Milk cows saw the steepest drop, declining 35%, while laying chickens were the only category to increase, rising 3%.
FAIRR insights are written by FAIRR team members and occasionally co-authored with guest contributors. The authors write in their individual capacity and do not necessarily represent the FAIRR view.
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